Greener Teign

• In a highly significant development, the US Environmental Protection Agency has declared CO2 to be a toxic gas which endangers public health.  This enables the EPA to take action to reduce, for example, emissions from transport and industry. 8 Dec
• Lord Stern has analysed the offers made so far to reduce emisions and concluded we are only 2 billion tonnes (bt) away from achieving the 2 degC warming level. This requires emissions to fall from the predicted 2020 annual level in the mid-50s to 44 bt. 8 Dec
• South Africa has announced CO2 reductions from current levels of 34% by 2020 and 42% by 2025. 8 Dec
• As the Copenhagen talks begin, 192 countries are attending with heads of State from over 100 countries including Barack Obama and the other big polluters.  Hopes are rising that a political agreement will be achieved.  7 Dec
• In the last 2 weeks the US, India, China, Brazil, Indonesia, Russia & Korea have all put numbers on the table for CO2 reductions (US 17% by 2020 from 2005 level; India 20-25% reduction in carbon intensity - amount per unit of GDP - by 2020 from 2005 level; China 40-45% reduction in carbon intensity by 2020 from 2005 level; Brazil 38-42% reduction by 2020 from projected 2020 level; Indonesia 26% by 2020 from current level; Russia 20-25% by 2020 from 1990; Korea 4% by 2020 from 2005). 4 Dec
• 40 world leaders have agreed to attend Copenhagen and Todd Stern & Nick Stern have spoken of their confidence that a political deal can be reached (although not a legally binding deal). 6 Nov
• The EU agreed at the Barcelona talks on 1st Nov that it would cut emissions by 20% from 1990 levels by 2020 (a start but not enough - see 'Need for Action' below).  At the same time Europe is the first to make a commitment to paying a 'fair share' of the funding needed worldwide to mitigate climate change.  The EU estimates €100bn a year is required up to half of which needs to come from the developed countries.
• Gordon Brown has agreed to attend Copenhagen in December and challenged other leaders to do the same.  Lula (Brazil) is also now attending but we need Obama and Hatoyama (Japan) as well.  See the Avaaz campaign
• Prof David MacKay took up his post as advisor to the UK Dept of Energy & Climate Change (DECC) on 1st Oct.  He will advise on the government's Low Carbon Transition Plan (if you haven't seen his excellent book "Sustainable energy - without the hot air" have a look at it online.  Everyone should read it)
• India has announced 3 measures:

Rich countries pledges on emissions reductions.  The EU announcement of 20% cuts from 1990 levels by 2020 together with the US (17% from 2005, equivalent to 4% from 1990), Japan (25% from 1990), Russia (10-15% from 1990), Canada (6% from 1990), Australia (5-25% by 2050) and Norway (30% from 1990) gives an estimated rich country reduction of only 6%.  Something nearer 40% from 1990 levels by 2020 is needed to avoid 2⁰C warming.

Report by coalition of McKinsey & Company, Swiss Re, the Rockefeller Foundation, the Global Environment Facility, ClimateWorks Foundation, the European Commission, and Standard Chartered Bank states (Oct 09) that climate change could reduce the GDP of less developed countries by up to 19%, by 2030.  "The climate risk to the world's economies is real and present, and its impact on people's lives and livelihoods will worsen rapidly if we do not take action now."

Dr Richard Betts, Head of Climate Impacts at the Met Office Hadley Centre, presented calculations on the effects of continued unmitigated burning of fossil fuels (29 Sept), concluding: 

• …… an increase in average summer temperatures of at least 2⁰C is inevitable by the 2040s because of accumulated carbon dioxide already emitted into the atmosphere.  
• ….. a "best estimate" is that 4⁰C will be reached by 2070, with a possibility that it will come as early as 2060.  
• “Four degrees of warming, averaged over the globe, translates into even greater warming in many regions, along with major changes in rainfall.”  In some areas warming could be significantly higher (10 degrees or more). 
• Richard Betts described himself as "shocked" that so much warming could occur within the lifetimes of people alive today.  "If greenhouse gas emissions are not cut soon then we could see major climate changes within our own lifetimes," he said.
• Dr Betts added: “Together these impacts will have very large consequences for food security, water availability and health.  However, it is possible to avoid these dangerous levels of temperature rise by cutting greenhouse gas emissions. If global emissions peak within the next decade and then decrease rapidly it may be possible to avoid at least half of the four degrees of warming.”
• The Times commented:  “……..it would be hard to dispute the quality of the science that underpins this report — the product of 12 years of detailed research by the Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research, part of the Met Office.”